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(DBX) Dropbox 財報要點 2019Q4

財報發表後翌日(21/2)收市價$22.45,大升20%,是自2018年3月IPO以來,最大的單日升幅。


財務表現

1. Q4 Revenue達446Mn,按年升19%,與Q3升幅一樣

2. Paying users達14.3Mn,按年升13%,較Q3的14% 升幅稍為減速

3. Business teams達0.45Mn,比一年前的0.4Mn上升了12.5%

4. Average revenue per paying user (ARPU)為$125,按年升5%,較Q3的4% 升幅略為加速

5. 首次公佈新的營運數據: Annual recurring revenue (ARR)為$1820Mn (按年升19%)

6. Gross margin (non-GAAP) 78%,比一年前的76% 改善了


而更亮眼的是,

7. Operating margin (non-GAAP) 16%,比一年前的11% 明顯改善了

8. Net loss收窄至$6.6Mn,目標於2020年底前轉虧為盈

9. Free Cash Flow創單季新高︰161Mn

10. 獲董事會授權回購價值$600Mn的股票 (此規模不少,佔市值約7-8%,以財報發表前股價計算)


官方長期展望(2024年前)

1. 全年Free Cash Flow達$1000Mn (vs $392Mn in 2019 and $360Mn in 2018)

2. Gross margin (non-GAAP) 78-80% (vs 76% in 2019 and 75% in 2018)

3. Operating margin (non-GAAP) 由以往預期的20-22% 大幅提升至28-30% (vs 12% in both 2019 and 2018)


官方短期展望(2020年)

1. 全年Free Cash Flow達$475-485Mn

2. Gross margin (non-GAAP) 78%

3. Operating margin (non-GAAP) 17.5-18%


個人認為此股過往一直被低估,會開始觸底回升,2020年底前可超越$30。

 

電話會議提及的其他事項 (可作參考)

公司發展︰


1. To keep on expanding the Dropbox workspace ecosystem

(i) Building on existing integration with tools from companies like Adobe, Microsoft and Google

(ii) Introduced new deep integration strategic partners like Atlassian, Slack and Zoom

(iii) New partnership with BetterCloud

  • To custom security policies, scan content for sensitive data, automate critical processes

(iv) HelloSign (acquired in Jan2019) is now fully integrated into Dropbox

  • Continue to see strong demand for HelloSign eSignature and it’s one of Dropbox’s fastest growing businesses


2. To drive the adoption of the new Dropbox desktop app (launched in Sep2019)


3. To tackle future challenge: Accessing and sharing information’s such as tax returns or digital copies of passports or managing passwords across services


4. One of the largest medical technology companies is now a Dropbox customer, which recently signed a three-year commitment to Dropbox and will be deploying our enterprise product to over 10,000 employees



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